Kerry Camp Ready for Mystery Running Mate

CLOQUET, Minn. — A campaign manager has been selected and office space cleared at Sen. John F. Kerry’s election headquarters. The Secret Service is standing by.

All that remains is for the Democratic presidential candidate to end months of speculation by choosing his running mate and revealing his choice. On Friday, Kerry said he plans to do so in novel fashion: by e-mailing the information to subscribers to his campaign website.

“They’re the people who’ve helped carry this campaign,” he said of the website’s 1 million subscribers. “ ... And they’ll be the first to know what my decision is.”

Kerry is expected to announce his choice before the Democratic National Convention starts on July 26 in Boston. But his pick -- and its timing -- is anybody’s guess.

On Friday, Kerry teased reporters on his campaign charter plane when asked whether he had anything he cared to announce. “Absolutely nothing specific at all,” he replied.

When a reporter joked that he wasn’t going to shave until Kerry revealed his choice, the candidate grinned and said: “How’s a three-week beard going to look?”

Most observers agree that the leading vice presidential contenders are North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. Others mentioned include retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., Florida Sens. Bob Graham and Bill Nelson, Illinois Sen. Richard Durbin and former Clinton Defense Secretary William S. Cohen, a Republican.

But Kerry still could surprise people, the way George W. Bush did four years ago when he selected Dick Cheney, who headed his vice presidential search committee, to fill the job.

“History tells us that it usually goes to somebody that you never expect,” said Charles Cook, an independent campaign analyst in Washington.

The choice of a running mate is one of the most important decisions Kerry will make between now and November, and not just because his understudy could wind up the proverbial heartbeat away from the presidency. Kerry’s pick will say a good deal about the priorities and political instincts of the Massachusetts senator, and could help flesh out perceptions of a candidate who remains a mystery to many voters, even after more than two years of campaigning.

Kerry has spent weeks calling Democrats around the country to sound out their opinions. He has been careful not to drop any clues about his thinking.

Within the campaign, just a handful of senior strategists are privy to the candidate’s deliberations. Even as the infrastructure for a vice presidential campaign has been set up -- including a “rollout” of several days, ending in the running mate’s home state -- most Kerry aides are in the dark.

“Everything has been in put in place. A campaign manager has been hired. We’ve identified a short list for the rest of the jobs that have to be filled,” said one strategist, who requested anonymity. “All we need is for John Kerry to plug in a name and a starting date.”

The strategist declined to identify the campaign manager for the running mate, in keeping with Kerry’s desire for secrecy.

In the absence of reliable information, a swirl of speculation has filled the vacuum, growing in recent days as the party’s convention draws nearer. Most of the intrigue has focused on Gephardt and Edwards.

Fans of Gephardt, the former House minority leader who sought the presidential nomination, argue that he has an unmatched depth of experience and cite his bond with Kerry, who said during the primaries that he would have backed Gephardt if he were not running.

But Edwards, who was the last to quit the nominating fight, is widely regarded as a more captivating public speaker and has built a strong following among the party’s activists.

“I think Kerry is in a real predicament,” said Cook. “There are three things he has to consider: Who is most qualified to be president, who he likes the most and, finally, who moves the needle” in public opinion polls.

“I don’t think anyone fits all three criteria,” Cook said. “Gephardt would seem to be the leading contender for the first two, but Edwards is the only guy who seems to quantitatively help.”

Setting personal chemistry aside -- Kerry is known to like Gephardt a good deal more than Edwards -- there is the calculation of which candidate might help Kerry in a tactical sense.

Some political experts, including some longtime Gephardt allies, have questioned whether he could even help carry Missouri, an important swing state. While Gephardt is a fixture in St. Louis after representing the city in Congress for nearly 30 years, he is not particularly well-known or highly regarded in the rest of the state, much of which is far more conservative than he is.

Jim Kabell, head of the Democratic Party in rural Lawrence County, Mo., said he spent several weekends campaigning for Gephardt in Iowa last winter. But Kabell, secretary-treasurer of the Teamsters local in Springfield, said he thought Kerry should select Edwards.

“I love Dick Gephardt. Working people have no better friend,” Kabell said. “But some people think that maybe Dick has been in Congress a long time, that he’s a lifelong politician. The person who has generally got the most support out here is John Edwards.”

But others doubt Edwards could help Kerry much in his home state of North Carolina, let alone the rest of the South.

“President Bush remains very popular, even though that’s weakening some,” said Hastings Wyman, publisher of the nonpartisan Southern Political Report. “Choosing Edwards might help a little bit by counteracting the edge of Kerry being from Massachusetts. But it’s still a long shot.”

Kerry on Friday brushed aside rumors that his list has been whittled down to Gephardt and Edwards. “That’s complete fiction to me,” he told the CBS affiliate in Minnesota’s Twin Cities. “ ... I don’t have any idea how anybody can speculate what’s going on in my head and what I’m down to.”

Kerry could announce his choice as early as Tuesday, or may wait another two weeks. According to a senior advisor, Kerry is unlikely to reveal his decision in midmonth for fear that it could be overshadowed by the Senate’s scheduled debate on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.

Kerry’s decision-making style makes it difficult to discern which way he is leaning. He is known for a tendency to play devil’s advocate about major decisions up until the last minute, friends and advisors say. And he refuses to make a choice about a matter until he feels he understands all the implications.

“There are so many false rumors and starts and stops,” said independent political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, “it’s absolutely fruitless.”

Times staff writer Stephanie Simon contributed to this report.