Beastie Boys of summer

It’s been six years since the Beastie Boys released an album. It’s been six years since Ashlee Simpson ... turned 10.

Yet both are in the mix among the most-anticipated albums coming this summer. Has the Beasties’ long absence become an insurmountable hurdle in their attempt to return to the top?

Can Simpson use her name (she’s Jessica’s little sister) and an unprecedented launch platform (like Jessica, who stars in MTV’s “Newlyweds” reality show with hubby Nick Lachey, little sis will have an MTV series about the making of her album) to transcend her inexperience and rocket up the charts?

The experts say a resounding yes to the Beastie Boys, who from their first album in 1986 (two years before Ashlee was born) have defied the conventional rules of success. In our pre-summer survey of radio programmers, music retailers and pop magazine editors, the trio’s “To the 5 Boroughs” (due June 15) comes with the highest expectations.

“It used to be you couldn’t stay away more than three years,” says Geoff Mayfield, director of charts at Billboard magazine. “But they can do what they want.”

The jury’s still out on Simpson, whose Geffen Records debut isdue July 20, a month after her MTV series premieres. Even with her lineage and exposure, there’s a reluctance to call this one a sure thing. But such hesitation is understandable in the current market. After all, last fall Pink’s “Try This” was seen as the sure thing, but the album fell far short of pop domination.

That may be the reason the panel was a little gun-shy in declaring high expectations for Avril Lavigne’s “Under My Skin,” the follow-up to her smash 2002 debut.

Vince Szdlowski, senior director of product for Virgin Entertainment Group’s retail operations, picks it after the Beasties’ and rapper Nelly’s June releases, saying that Lavigne is “set to repeat her debut glory.” But Julie Pilat, music director at Los Angeles pop titan KIIS-FM (102.7), is taking a wait-and-hear approach, saying that the preview single “Don’t Tell Me” is doing “OK” at the station.

On other fronts, G-Unit member Lloyd Banks and R. Kelly join Nelly among the tops of hip-hop and R&B.; Good Charlotte is favored to cement its status as the pop-punk leader, and the country world is expecting a huge summer from Tim McGraw.

Other panelists assessing the season, which runs now through Labor Day, were KKBT-FM (100.3) music director Tawala Sharp; KPWR-FM (105.9) music director E Man KROQ-FM (106.7) music director Matt Smith; Spin magazine music editor Charles Aaron; KZLA-FM (93.9) music director Tonya Campos, and Country Music Television general manager Brian Phillips.

Hip-Hop

Win: Lloyd Banks, “Hunger for More,” Interscope Records (due June 29). From the same part of the Eminem universe that brought us 50 Cent, Banks is already hot with the single “On Fire,” produced by Eminem.

Place: Nelly, Universal Records (date TBA). “Haven’t heard anything yet, but he has yet to disappoint,” says Virgin Entertainment’s Szydlowski.

Show: The Roots, “The Tipping Point,” Geffen Records (July 13). “The fan base for their live shows is so huge that all they have to do is put out an album and go on tour and it will sell,” says KKBT’s Sharp.

Dark horse: Play N Skillz. KPWR’s E Man picks the debut from this Texas duo, which has produced Lil’ Flip and others and has a current hot single, “Freaks.”

Also watch for: Xzibit, 2.1.3. (a teaming of Snoop Dogg, Nate Dogg and Warren G.), Method Man, Mobb Deep and a duets album featuring the late Notorious B.I.G.

R&B;

Win: R. Kelly, “Happy People/U Saved Me,” Jive Records (date TBA). The first disc in this two-disc set is mainstream R&B;, the second has an inspirational tone. “He continues to come up with records that dominate the airwaves,” KKBT’s Sharp says.

Place: Brandy, “Afrodisiac,” Atlantic Records (June 29). Sharp says, “Fans have been waiting for a new album for a long time, and if the single ‘Talk About Our Love’ is any indication of what we can expect, fans won’t be disappointed.”

Show: Jill Scott, Epic Records (August). Scott answered the question in the title of her 2000 debut “Who Is Jill Scott?” with a hit album, and her new one will feature a roster of Philadelphia producers, plus one track overseen by Raphael Saadiq.

Alternative Rock

Win: Beastie Boys

Place: Good Charlotte, Epic Records (date TBA). “Good Charlotte has turned the page and is now a KIIS core artist,” says Pilat of the pop station. “We’ll be out of the box with them for sure.”

Place: The Hives, Interscope Records (July 20). The pride of Swedish garage rock returns in an attempt to live up to its 2002 breakthrough, “Veni Vidi Vicious.”

Dark horse: Morrissey., “You Are the Quarry,” Attack Records (May 18). The return of Mozza after seven years sees him selling out multi-date stands in L.A. and New York and headlining Lollapalooza shows.

Also watch for: New Found Glory, Keane, Jimmy Eat World, Taking Back Sunday, Coheed & Cambria, Simple Plan.

Rock

Win: Lenny Kravitz, “Baptism,” Virgin Records (May 18). One of the most consistent record sellers in rock in recent memory.

Place: Velvet Revolver, “Contraband,” RCA (June 8). Three Guns N’ Roses mainstays are joined by Stone Temple Pilots singer Scott Weiland in this “supergroup.” Billboard’s Mayfield says, “Getting beyond the faithful Guns fans and Pilots fans will depend on radio. In terms of awareness, we’ve certainly been hearing about this long enough, so it has a shot to be noticed.”

Pop

Win: Avril Lavigne, “Under My Skin,” Arista Records (May 25). Her mall tour to preview the album was a strong marketing strategy, but can she keep her audience as it moves out of its teen years?

Place: Ashlee Simpson

Show: Good Charlotte

Dark horse: Maria Mena, “Another Phase,” Columbia Records (July 13). KIIS’s Pilat picks the debut from this 18-year-old New Yorker.

Country

Win: Tim McGraw, Curb Records (August 31). “He will be very, very high profile right through Christmas,” says CMT’s Phillips, noting McGraw’s role in the forthcoming Billy Bob Thornton movie “Friday Night Lights” in addition to the new album.

Place: Joe Nichols, “Revelation,” Universal South (June 29). The follow-up to his buzz-heavy 2002 debut, “Man With a Memory.”

Show: Gretchen Wilson, “Here for the Party,” (Sony Nashville). “The single, ‘Redneck Woman,’ is on CMT every 20 minutes and is the most requested,” says Phillips.

“Kid Rock and Hank Williams Jr. have cameos in the video. She comes from that school of country. People are just in love with her.”